The Trump-Xi Summit: A Fragile Bid to Salvage the Postwar Order Amid Rising Perils

By Victoria Chen-Hartwell | Circus of Power | May 13, 2026

President Donald Trump's arrival in Beijing today marks a pivotal moment in an era of fraying global ties—one that could either steady the liberal international order or accelerate its unraveling. As Air Force One touched down under a meticulously choreographed welcome, the stakes could not be higher: the summit's outcomes will ripple through markets already jittery from the U.S.-Iran war, test alliances strained by American unilateralism, and determine whether the rules-based system that has underpinned prosperity since 1945 can endure another round of disruption. With bilateral trade down 20 percent since the tariff escalations of 2025, according to U.S. Trade Representative data, and the shadow of conflict in the Middle East looming large, this is no mere photo opportunity. It is a high-wire act for economic stability, diplomatic norms, and the very architecture of global governance.

The agenda, as outlined in White House briefings and echoed in Chinese state media, is ambitious and fraught. At the top: repairing the battered U.S.-China trade relationship. The 2018 tariff wars, which Trump himself reignited upon his return to office, have exacted a heavy toll—a $400 billion U.S. trade deficit in 2025 alone, per USTR figures, alongside supply-chain snarls that have inflated costs for American manufacturers and consumers alike. The administration's freshly released 2026 Trade Policy Agenda calls for "reciprocal" deals, lambasting China's intellectual property practices as a core grievance. Yet beneath the rhetoric lies a pragmatic imperative: with global growth forecasts downgraded by the IMF to 2.7 percent this year—partly due to these frictions—failure here risks tipping economies into recession. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's presence on the presidential plane underscores the tech dimension; semiconductors and AI curbs are non-negotiable for Washington, but Beijing's dominance in rare earths gives Xi Jinping leverage to push back.

Layered atop trade are the geopolitical flashpoints: the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and Taiwan's precarious status. China has positioned itself as a potential mediator in the Middle East, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi urging de-escalation just days ago in a YouTube address. Trump's rejection of Tehran's peace proposal—coming swiftly after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—has only heightened the urgency. The Pentagon's request for a $1.5 trillion defense budget, up 15 percent from last year and explicitly tied to operations in the Strait of Hormuz, signals Washington's commitment to escalation. Costs are spiraling: the Congressional Budget Office estimates $2 billion per day for the war, now in its sixth month, with Brent crude oil spiking 5 percent to $95 a barrel today amid border closures. For Xi, this presents an opportunity to burnish China's image as a responsible power, contrasting with what a recent Beijing think tank report—cited in Rachel Maddow's blog—described as Trump's role in "accelerating American political decay" by weakening alliances.

Taiwan, too, casts a long shadow. Tensions have simmered since Beijing's 2025 military drills, and U.S. arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act remain a sore point. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warn that any concessions here could embolden Xi, much as the U.S. pivot to Asia under Obama inadvertently heightened frictions. Yet Trump's "America First" approach—praised by Fox News commentator Pete Hegseth on X as "toughness that will force Xi to the table"—may yield unpredictably. Hegseth, now Defense Secretary, tweeted: "No more free rides for China." Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama) echoed this on the platform, hailing the trip as a boon for U.S. manufacturing jobs. Such optimism overlooks the risks: a deal that prioritizes short-term tariff relief over long-term strategic guardrails could undermine deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.

Critics, spanning Democrats and international observers, decry the summit as a potential sellout. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) posted on X: "Trump's cozying up to Xi sells out workers—extend tariffs, don't beg for deals." Fareed Zakaria, on CNN, noted China's emboldened posture following U.S. entanglements in Iran, suggesting Beijing views American overreach as a gift. On X, the #TrumpXiSummit hashtag has amassed 15,000 mentions, blending MAGA enthusiasm ("Wild welcome awaits!") with progressive alarm over Taiwan ("Urge congressional oversight!"). These voices highlight a deeper unease: Trump's unilateralism erodes the multilateralism that has sustained the postwar order. NATO allies, already wary after his past summits, are watching closely; a European diplomat, speaking anonymously to The Guardian, expressed fears that any U.S.-China pact on Iran could sideline transatlantic security without consultation.

Historical parallels abound, offering both caution and precedent. Recall Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China, which shattered the Cold War bipolarity and integrated Beijing into the global economy—a masterstroke that bolstered the rules-based system for decades. The 2018 Mar-a-Lago summit between Trump and Xi promised similar resets but devolved into tariff brinkmanship. Today's encounter echoes those moments but in a more volatile context: Russia's barrage of over 200 drones and missiles on Ukraine yesterday, killing at least 14, underscores the multipolar threats testing U.S. bandwidth. With American aid to Kyiv diverted amid Iran priorities—trending under #StandWithUkraine with 40,000 mentions—the summit risks reinforcing perceptions of U.S. retrenchment.

As someone who has navigated these corridors at the State Department under both parties, I am no stranger to the sausage-making of diplomacy. The system, for all its flaws, works when administered with expertise and patience—incremental reforms, not revolutionary overhauls. Trump's style, blending bravado with deal-making, has yielded surprises before, from the Abraham Accords to North Korea talks. But on China, nuance is essential: competition in strategic domains like technology and human rights, paired with engagement on shared interests such as pandemic preparedness and climate—though the U.S. withdrawal from the UNFCCC in January has complicated that front.

Pragmatic solutions must guide this summit. First, on trade: prioritize enforceable IP protections through multilateral forums like the WTO, rather than bilateral arm-twisting that invites retaliation. A CSIS report from last month recommends "friend-shoring" supply chains with allies like Japan and the EU, reducing vulnerability without isolating China entirely. Second, for Iran: leverage Xi's mediation offer to de-escalate, perhaps tying it to broader nonproliferation talks involving the P5+1 framework. This would reaffirm institutions over ad hoc deals, preserving U.S. credibility. On Taiwan, reaffirm the status quo with quiet assurances—deterrence through strength, not provocation.

Markets, ever the canary in the coal mine, reflect the fragility. The Dow Jones rose 1.2 percent in pre-summit trading, buoyed by hopes of tariff easings, but the S&P 500 dipped 0.8 percent after the Senate's confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair—a dovish pivot that could fuel inflation amid war-driven volatility. Broader economic policy under Trump, including the Fed shift, risks bubbles in an era of $35 trillion national debt. Yet a successful summit could unlock growth: restoring trade flows might add 0.5 percentage points to global GDP, per IMF models, stabilizing currencies and jobs.

At root, this is about more than bilateral ties—it's a referendum on the international order. Populism, whether MAGA isolationism or its progressive counterparts, thrives on policy failures like unchecked trade imbalances and endless wars. I've long argued that such movements are symptoms, not cures; addressing them demands restoring faith in institutions through competent governance. Trump's Beijing trip, for all its bluster, offers a chance to do just that—if it avoids the pitfalls of ego-driven concessions.

In Palo Alto last week, over coffee with venture capitalists fretting AI export controls, I sensed the unease: innovation flourishes in open systems, not silos. Back in Georgetown, diplomats whisper of alliance fatigue. The world watches Xi and Trump not as equals in a new G2, but as stewards of a shared inheritance. They must choose stewardship over spectacle. The postwar order has weathered storms before; with pragmatic engagement, it can again.

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Victoria Chen-Hartwell is a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writing on international order and democratic institutions.

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