Brinkmanship in the Strait: How the US-Iran Escalation Threatens the Pillars of Global Order
By Victoria Chen-Hartwell | Circus of Power | March 20, 2026
The waters of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows, have long been a tinderbox for geopolitical flashpoints. Yesterday's reported sinking of an Iranian frigate by a U.S. submarine in those contested international waters marks not just a tactical escalation but a profound risk to the liberal international order that has underwritten global stability since 1945. With oil prices surging 15 percent overnight to $110 a barrel—according to real-time data from the New York Times—and President Trump's stark nuclear warnings echoing from the White House podium, we are witnessing a dangerous convergence of military bravado, economic disruption, and institutional erosion. This is no isolated skirmish; it endangers markets, alliances, and democratic norms at a moment when the United States, under renewed populist pressures, can ill afford to go it alone.
Let us dispense with the hyperbole that has flooded social media and cable news. The facts, as pieced together from reports by Euronews and Foreign Policy, paint a sobering picture. The U.S. action appears to stem from Iranian provocations, including drone incursions near American assets and support for proxy militias in the region. In response, the submarine strike—precise and targeted, if unconfirmed in full detail—has crippled Tehran's naval projection in the Gulf. Iran retaliated swiftly, launching hypersonic missiles toward Tel Aviv and Haifa, prompting Israeli interceptions and vows of further revenge from Tehran. President Trump, in a press conference that blended bravado with off-the-cuff remarks, declared that the U.S. has "literally obliterated" Iranian capabilities and issued a chilling nuclear admonition: "I think we've won... I don't want to do a ceasefire. You don't do a ceasefire when you're obliterating the other side." Such rhetoric, while rallying domestic hawks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth—who tweeted enthusiastically about a "decisive victory against a predictable foe"—ignores the fragility of escalation ladders in a nuclear age.
This is not the first time the U.S. has confronted Iran militarily; echoes of the 2020 strike on Qasem Soleimani reverberate here, but amplified by the scale and the involvement of allies. The United Kingdom, France, and even Japan have dispatched naval assets to secure oil shipping lanes, a de facto coalition without the formal scaffolding of NATO or the United Nations. Japan's participation is particularly telling—and strained—following Trump's ill-advised quip likening the conflict to Pearl Harbor during comments on bilateral ties, as reported in Foreign Policy. Tokyo, a key U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific, has long prioritized energy security amid its import dependence, yet this casual invocation of history risks alienating an ally already navigating tensions with China. As a former State Department official who served through multiple administrations, I have seen how such unilateral flourishes undermine the very alliances that amplify American power. The rules-based order thrives on predictability and multilateral buy-in, not ad hoc armadas.
Economically, the stakes could not be higher. The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a waterway; it is the artery of global trade, handling some 21 million barrels of oil daily, per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Disruptions here ripple through supply chains, inflating energy costs and stoking inflation in an already volatile post-pandemic economy. With gas prices climbing toward $4 a gallon nationally—fueled by these events and broader Middle East instability, as noted in trending X posts and Fox Business analyses—the human cost will fall hardest on working families. I am no stranger to the critiques that cosmopolitan voices like mine are "out of touch" with these realities; indeed, as someone who splits time between Georgetown salons and Palo Alto boardrooms, I recognize the disconnect. Yet dismissing the macroeconomic fallout does a disservice to the very people affected. A Brookings Institution report from last year warned that sustained Hormuz tensions could shave 1-2 percent off global GDP growth, echoing the 1979 oil crisis that precipitated stagflation under Carter. Free trade, the engine of prosperity I have long championed, depends on secure chokepoints; Iran's vows of asymmetric retaliation—mines, swarms, blockades—threaten to unravel that.
Beyond economics, this escalation probes the fault lines of democratic governance. Trump's nuclear saber-rattling raises uncomfortable questions about executive war powers, especially absent congressional authorization. The War Powers Resolution of 1973, intended as a check on presidential overreach, has atrophied into irrelevance, as evidenced by this incident's rapid unfolding without debate. With midterms looming in November, the conflict injects volatility into domestic politics, where populism on both flanks—be it MAGA celebrations of "winning" or progressive laments over authoritarian drift—feeds on policy failures rather than offering solutions. Senator Raphael Warnock's threads on X, linking the strikes to broader warnings from Human Rights Watch about executive overreach, underscore a bipartisan unease. Iran's reported execution of three protesters amid the chaos, cited by Trump himself, only heightens the moral stakes: Tehran’s regime thrives on external threats to justify internal repression, perpetuating a cycle that erodes global norms on human rights and non-proliferation.
Historical parallels abound, and they are cautionary. Consider the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964, where exaggerated reports of aggression drew the U.S. into Vietnam's quagmire, costing trillions and shattering public trust. Or the 1988 downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by the USS Vincennes, a tragic miscalculation amid heightened tensions that nearly derailed U.S.-Soviet arms control talks. Today's scenario, with hypersonic threats and nuclear posturing, carries even graver risks. A recent RAND Corporation analysis on Middle East contingencies estimates a full-scale U.S.-Iran war could cost $1.5 trillion over a decade, not including the intangible erosion of soft power. Iran's nuclear program, dormant but not dismantled since the JCPOA's collapse in 2018, now looms larger; Trump's warnings may deter Tehran in the short term, but without diplomatic off-ramps, they invite proliferation cascades across the region—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, even Egypt eyeing the bomb.
Nuance demands acknowledging the rationale behind U.S. action. Iran remains a state sponsor of terrorism, its proxies fueling instability from Yemen to Lebanon. As someone hawkish on such threats—having contributed to sanctions strategies during my tenure—the need to counter Tehran's adventurism is clear. Netanyahu's praise for the strikes, per Israeli state media, reflects a shared view in Jerusalem that deterrence is essential post-October 7. Yet decisive military responses must pair with institutional fortitude. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, recently testified before committees on reforming the Security Council to impose stricter anti-Iran measures—a step I endorse. Strengthening the IAEA's inspections and reviving multilateral sanctions, perhaps through a revamped E3+3 framework with China and Russia (despite Putin's current zugzwang in Ukraine), offers a path to containment without catastrophe.
Pragmatic solutions, rooted in incremental reform, are imperative. First, de-escalate through backchannels: Quiet diplomacy via Oman or Qatar has yielded results before, as in the 2019 tanker deconfliction talks. Second, bolster alliances with formal commitments—invoke Article 51 of the UN Charter for collective self-defense, ensuring Japan's role feels like partnership, not provocation. Third, address the economic undercurrents: Accelerate diversified energy imports, from U.S. LNG to renewables, to reduce Hormuz's leverage. A Council on Foreign Relations task force last fall outlined how high-skilled immigration in clean tech could drive this transition, aligning with my longstanding advocacy for talent flows that fuel innovation. Domestically, Congress must reclaim war powers through binding legislation, insulating decisions from electoral whims.
In the end, this US-Iran brinkmanship is a symptom of deeper malaise: the fraying of institutions that once channeled American leadership into enduring order. Populism, whether Trump's triumphant tweets or Tehran's defiant broadcasts, exploits these fissures, but it is no philosophy for governance. The Davos set may debate abstractions, yet the world's stability hangs on prosaic choices—secure seas, stable prices, shared burdens. If we falter here, the costs will echo far beyond the Gulf, reminding us that true strength lies not in obliteration, but in the patient architecture of reform.
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Victoria Chen-Hartwell is a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writing on international order and democratic institutions.
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