Trump's Tariffs: One Year Later, the Rust Belt's Still Waiting for the Boom

By Tucker McAllister | Circus of Power | May 07, 2026

I remember the day the Delco plant in Millbrook shuttered like it was yesterday. It was summer 2016, and the air smelled of diesel and despair as 1,200 good-paying jobs vanished overnight, shipped to some factory in Mexico courtesy of NAFTA's fine print. Folks who'd spent decades welding parts for American cars suddenly found themselves flipping burgers or worse—nothing at all. I was mayor then, handing out pink slips and empty promises from Washington about "retraining programs" that never materialized. Ten years on, and here we are in 2026, with President Trump a year into his second term, pushing tariffs harder than ever. Yesterday's closed-door huddle with Brazil's President Lula da Silva was just the latest chapter in that fight, all about trade imbalances and slapping duties on partners who don't play fair. Trump tweeted on Truth Social after the meeting: "Just concluded my meeting with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva... We discussed many topics, including Trade and, specifically, Tariffs." No joint presser, just rumors of tough talk behind the scenes. It's a reminder that tariffs aren't some abstract policy—they're the last line of defense for towns like mine, where the American Dream got offshored one container ship at a time.

Marking the one-year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff rollout last May—10% across the board on imports from China, ramping up to 60% on key sectors like steel and electronics—new reports are trickling out, and they're not all champagne toasts. A fresh analysis from Yahoo Finance, echoed by Politico and PBS, paints a mixed picture: no net gains in manufacturing jobs. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the U.S. added about 15,000 factory positions in Trump's first full year back in office. That's not the roaring comeback the president promised. Sure, there were bright spots—steel employment ticked up by about 5,000 jobs in the early months, and auto parts suppliers in places like Pennsylvania reported a hiring spurt. But retaliatory tariffs from trading partners hit our exporters hard, disrupting supply chains and leaving broader manufacturing at 12.95 million jobs, up slightly from before the duties kicked in. Trump pushed back in a YouTube short yesterday, insisting, "Tariffs will soon bring steel factory jobs roaring back." It's the kind of fighting talk that got him elected twice, but in Millbrook, where folks are still driving 45 minutes for a $15-an-hour gig, "soon" feels like yesterday's news.

Don't get me wrong—I'm no free-trade cheerleader. As someone who watched Wall Street fat cats gut the heartland while preaching the gospel of globalization, I was all in on tariffs from day one. Trump's plan was straightforward: Use American market muscle to force fairer deals, claw back leverage from China and its enablers, and rebuild domestic manufacturing. And there's evidence it's working in pockets. The Reports highlight approximately $1.2 billion in U.S. investments flowing into domestic rare earth mining and processing this year alone, a direct counterpunch to Beijing's stranglehold on critical minerals. Brazil, with its vast reserves, was a prime target in yesterday's talks—Trump's team reportedly pressed Lula for concessions on exports to keep those supply chains flowing stateside without getting undercut by Chinese dumping. U.S.-Brazil trade topped $100 billion last year, but we've run deficits in agriculture and minerals that bleed American workers dry. If tariffs nudge partners like Lula toward reciprocity, that's a win for Ohio's auto plants and Michigan's battery factories, where rare earths power the next wave of jobs.

But here's where the skeptics—and there are plenty—have a point, and I'd be a fool not to address it. Critics, from Democratic economists to the think-tank crowd at places like the Marketplace institute, call tariffs a "tax on Americans." They're not entirely wrong. Input costs for manufacturers jumped, leading to a 2.1% bump in inflation tied directly to the ripple effects—higher prices for everything from washing machines to winter coats. In Millbrook, my old neighbors are griping about grocery bills up 2.3% since last year, and that's before you factor in the soy farmers in Iowa getting hammered by Brazil's retaliatory duties on U.S. exports. A PBS op-ed summed it up bluntly: Factories "shed workers" because CEOs passed on the extra costs rather than eating them. Reddit threads in geopolitics forums are full of it—"self-inflicted wounds," they say, with data showing exporters like Boeing and Caterpillar losing ground in Latin America. Even Lula, in his post-meeting statement from Washington, struck a diplomatic but firm note: "The Brazil is prepared to discuss any subject... the only thing that we do not open hand is of our democracy." Translation: We're open to tariffs talk, but don't expect us to roll over.

They'll say the same about the bigger picture: Why risk alienating allies like Brazil when China's the real dragon in the room? Yesterday's meeting touched on organized crime and drug trafficking too—vital issues, with fentanyl pouring across our southern border—but if tariffs sour the mood, cooperation on those fronts could stall. And let's not forget the EU angle; Trump just wrapped a call with Ursula von der Leyen, demanding they slash tariffs to zero under the old 2019 Turnberry deal or face hikes by July 4th next year. It's classic Trump brinkmanship, but the elites in Brussels and Brasília are already whispering about "imperialism," as Brazilian media put it. On X, the split's stark: MAGA accounts like @EricLDaugh are crowing about Trump "steamrolling" Lula for mineral deals, with #TariffsWork trending among conservatives. Meanwhile, the left-leaning crowd—Bernie Sanders indirectly blasting foreign overreach—warns of fractured alliances and higher costs for working families.

I get the frustration. In Millbrook, we didn't vote for tariffs to pad corporate margins or spike our Walmart runs. We voted for jobs that let a man support his family without two side hustles. That 98,000-job loss stings, especially when BLS numbers show manufacturing hovering stubbornly around pre-pandemic levels. But here's the rub: These studies are snapshots, not the full story. Free trade's "glory days" under Obama and Biden saw us lose 5 million manufacturing jobs over two decades, offshored to low-wage havens while coastal billionaires got richer. Tariffs are a blunt tool, messy and painful in the short term, but they're forcing a reckoning. Look at the steel mills in Pennsylvania that reopened last fall—small-scale, sure, but real wages for real people. Or the $1.6 billion in rare earth investments: That's seed money for factories that could employ thousands in the Rust Belt by 2028, if we stay the course. Trump's broader push, including threats to non-compliant partners like Brazil and the EU, is about building that leverage. Without it, we're back to square one—China dictating terms, Wall Street laughing all the way to the bank.

The mainstream media won't tell you this straight. Outlets like The New York Times bury the positive anecdotes—the Ohio welder who got his old job back—while amplifying every doom-and-gloom stat. CNN's pundits frame yesterday's Lula meeting as "tense bullying," ignoring how Trump's deal-making style has already cut illegal border crossings by 40% through enforcement tied to trade pacts. It's the same old swamp playbook: Undermine America First to keep the globalist gravy train rolling. But working Americans aren't buying it anymore. On X, #TrumpTariffs posts hit 20,000 yesterday, with blue-collar users venting about prices but doubling down on the need to fight offshoring. As Tom Homan, Trump's incoming Border Czar, put it on Fox while tying immigration to economic security: "We're gonna give it our best shot... Send a message it's not OK to enter illegally." Tariffs send a similar message to trading partners: Play fair, or pay up.

So where do we go from here? President Trump, if you're reading this from the Oval Office—deliver on the roar. Ramp up those domestic investments, pair tariffs with real retraining that works, and make sure the pain doesn't hit the little guy hardest. For the rest of us in forgotten towns like Millbrook, keep the pressure on. Call your congressman, demand transparency on these Brazil follow-ups, and vote with your wallet—buy American where you can. One year in, tariffs aren't a silver bullet, but they're better than the poison pill of endless free trade. The factories might not be booming yet, but give it time. We've waited a decade; a little longer for real leverage is worth it. Otherwise, the Delco plant's ghost will haunt us all.

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Tucker McAllister is a former mayor of Millbrook, Ohio and writes on trade, immigration, and working-class America.

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